Kenya's Medium-Term Fiscal Consolidation: Evidence from Comparable Economies
Analysis of Kenya's fiscal consolidation path against eight comparable Sub-Saharan African economies reveals that sustainable deficit reduction requires a dual-track approach: strengthening domestic revenue mobilisation while protecting high-multiplier development expenditure.
Kenya's untapped revenue base in the informal economy and property tax could yield an additional 2–3% of GDP.
Debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to peak at 72.4% in FY2025/26 before declining under the baseline scenario.
Kenya's fiscal deficit is broadly in line with regional peers, but the country's lower revenue base means a higher proportion of the deficit is financed through borrowing relative to potential domestic resource mobilisation. Read the full comparative analysis →