Tourism Sector Performance Briefing — Q1 2026
Executive Summary
Kenya's tourism sector recorded 2,104,830 international arrivals in Q1 2026, an 8.3% increase on the comparable 2025 period, and is tracking 4.2% ahead of the Tourism Research Institute's 2026 base forecast of 8.4 million annual arrivals. Tourism revenue reached an estimated KES 247 billion for the quarter, up 11.2% year-on-year, sustaining the structural growth trajectory established in the record 2025 full year (7.7 million arrivals, KES 988 billion revenue).
Key Developments
The India source market recorded its strongest-ever single-month performance in March 2026, with arrivals up 31.4% year-on-year, positioning India to overtake Germany as Kenya's third-largest source market by year-end. The United States market similarly posted a record month in April 2026, driven by new codeshare airlift arrangements. These developments support the case for an upward revision of the 2026 full-year forecast under active review by TRI's Forecasting Centre.
Recommendation
Given Q1 momentum and the accelerating India and US market trajectories, TRI recommends the Ministry consider reallocating a portion of FY2026/27 marketing budget toward Tier 2 Indian city campaigns and continued US codeshare facilitation, both assessed as having the highest marginal return on current trend data.